Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, August 23, 2019

August 23, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Lapis Storm 1.60 2.1 4-1
1 1 Hero of Gold 3.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Ms Meer 4.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Thirsty Cowgirl 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Mining for Pearls 12.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Ditten Waddy 5.00 5 9-1
3 3 Elegant Prowess 12.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Goneghost 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Wile E Peyote 3.50 3 6-1
3 3 Balandeen 20.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Nuclear Option 2.50 3.6 7-1
2 2 Examiner 5.00 3.7 7-1
7 6 Student Body Left 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Mojo Man 5.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mister Maestro 2.50 2.6 5-1
8 5 Trappe Valley 6.00 2.9 5-1
7 4 Gorgeous George 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Richiesgotswagger 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Driven by History 4.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Spectacular Road 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Sidavi 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Go Oshie Go 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Back Page Star 4.50 2.3 4-1
6 5 Straight Up Smarty 2.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Hide and Street 6.00 4.2 8-1
7 6 Bonita Springs 3.50 4.4 8-1
8 8 Antalya 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Launch Away 5.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Wildwood Scat 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Goddess of Kip 12.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Northern Alliance 3.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 On My Toes 2.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Sperling 4.00 3.4 7-1
6 6 Voluptuous 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Tam 20.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Tinderella 20.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Chosen Facts 12.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Baylor 20.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Winning Quality 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Ozette 5.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Me too Mo 2.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Mixin It Up 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Brilliant Zena 6.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Citibike 15.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Regal Storm 8.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Rocket Queen 2.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Almafuerte 3.50 3.4 7-1
1 1 Lively Spell 15.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Mistletoe Miss 4.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Running Vicky 12.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Good Wishes 3.50 5.1 10-1
2 2 Honey Hearts 15.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Miss Galilee 20.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Have the Facts 20.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Impressed 2.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Suspect 15.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Speed Effect 3.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Kansas City Zip 5.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Deal Neal In 3.50 4.3 8-1
8 8 Rich’s Rags 20.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Takafumi (BRZ) 4.50 4.9 9-1
9 9 Star of Kodiak 20.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Populist 15.00 6.3 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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