Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, August 22, 2019

August 22, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – New York Turf Writers Cup H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Winston C (IRE) 0.80 1.8 3-1
5 4 Gibralfaro (IRE) 4.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Modem (GB) 15.00 4.3 8-1
7 6 Peppay Le Pugh (IRE) 10.00 5.2 10-1
8 7 Hinterland (FR) 6.00 5.4 10-1
6 5 Belisarius (IRE) 30.00 8.2 15-1
9 8 All the Way Jose 12.00 9 17-1
3 3 No Wunder (GB) 15.00 9.8 19-1
4 4 Portrade (IRE) 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Internet of Things 1.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Lucky Bet 5.00 4 7-1
4 4 Purchasing Power 5.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Curlin’s Knight 4.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Eddy Dirt 6.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Run for Boston 12.00 9.1 17-1
6 6 Simma Cum Laude 30.00 9.9 19-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Cap de Creus 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 1 Quiet Dignity 1.80 3.5 7-1
3 2 Silver Shaker 10.00 4.5 9-1
7 5 Beau Belle 8.00 6.6 12-1
5A 4 Fancy That 8.00 9.3 18-1
8 6 Cottonwood Falls 12.00 12 23-1
1A 1 Nonsensical 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 English Soul 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sargeant Drive 2.50 4.5 9-1
5 5 Grit and Glory 3.50 4.6 9-1
4 4 Derby Memories 1.20 5.4 10-1
3 3 Claytnthelionheart 6.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Soul Fight 10.00 7 13-1
2 2 Bumperdoo 12.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 6 Project Whiskey 1.60 2.9 5-1
8 5 Raggedy Annie 4.50 3.8 7-1
4 3 Wicked Title 12.00 6.3 12-1
3 2 La Negrita 6.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Sweet Leaf 12.00 7.9 15-1
10 7 Central Capital 10.00 8.2 15-1
6 4 Let It Slide 10.00 9.2 17-1
2 2 Blessingsofliberty 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Positive Power 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Las Ramblas 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Crossing the Moon 5.00 5.6 11-1
6 5 Cowtown 4.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Imperare 6.00 7 13-1
3A 3 Enforceable 1.80 7.3 14-1
7 6 Portos 6.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Mo and Go 15.00 8.2 15-1
8 7 Zuzudini 12.00 8.3 16-1
2A 2 Lucky Curlin 1.80 8.7 16-1
10 9 Ghost of the Mambo 10.00 18 34-1
5 5 Bracketologist 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 7 Tatterazzi 2.50 6 11-1
9 6 Blame It On Mom 3.00 6.7 13-1
8 5 Deep Space 3.50 8.1 15-1
7 4 The Great Johanna 4.00 8.7 16-1
4 2 J J Jen 10.00 8.7 16-1
14 10 Lady Macho 4.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Tax Me Naught 15.00 9 17-1
6 3 Irish Banker 8.00 10 19-1
13 9 Nasty Affair 2.50 10.7 20-1
12 8 Finlee 30.00 10.9 21-1
2 2 Go Zappem 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Renninas Rose 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Freddymo Factor 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Magical Romance 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Shamrock Kid 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Blugrascat’s Smile 2.50 5 9-1
2 2 Fiery Opal 3.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Calculated Risker 4.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Storm Prophet 1.80 6.2 12-1
6 6 Playthatfunnymusic 12.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Riskaverse S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 2 Catch a Bid 1.40 2.5 5-1
5 1 All Quality 12.00 3.7 7-1
7 3 Dalika (GER) 15.00 4.5 8-1
9 5 Xanthique 15.00 5.5 10-1
8 4 New and Improved 6.00 5.6 11-1
10 6 Hotsy Totsy (IRE) 3.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Varenka 0.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Peaceful 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Ionic 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Queen of Beas 0.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 3 Tony Small 6.00 4.4 8-1
14 7 Dark Storm 3.00 4.8 9-1
13 6 Final Say 4.00 5 9-1
1 1 Deft 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 2 Qaabil 6.00 6.8 13-1
9 4 Foti 12.00 6.9 13-1
11 5 Knockout Punch 15.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Azzedine (FR) 50.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Perceived 2.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Sandy Lane Kitten 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Timepiece 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Crypto Gold 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Noble Spirit 3.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Third Army 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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