Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 18, 2019

May 18, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Arrowsphere 2.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 Don’teatmycookies 2.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Gianna’s Gift 2.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Triple Kapalua 8.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Lady Boots 8.00 3 6-1
6 6 Molly’s Game 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Atruevision 20.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Richard’s Boy 4.50 1.3 2-1
7 7 Sir Navigator 3.00 2 4-1
4 4 Sharp Art 5.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Bolita Boyz 5.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Data Driven 4.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Midwest Justice 6.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 No Funny Biz 5.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Shezappealing 10.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Sweet Diane 1.40 1.4 3-1
7 6 Good Creation 4.50 1.6 3-1
6 5 Saracosa 4.00 1.7 3-1
4 3 Goodbye Earl 4.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Full Orbit 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Ready Orb Not 8.00 3.2 6-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13A 13 Pow 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Impossible Mission 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 The Kid in Syd 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Spect No Mercy 15.00 SCRATCH
8A 6 Red Rover 3.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Malibu Mo 3.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Sarcillo 10.00 2.4 4-1
5 3 Grandgran 12.00 2.4 5-1
7 5 Run This Town 10.00 2.8 5-1
9 7 Alex’s Heights 12.00 3.1 6-1
10 8 Lucky Leo 15.00 3.3 6-1
6 4 Falls Road 20.00 4.2 8-1
12 9 Happy Go Lucky 20.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ike Walker 4.00 2 4-1
2 2 River Echo (GB) 5.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Sightforsoreeyes 3.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Icatiro 4.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Italian Charm 5.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Vaporman 8.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Malibu Wood 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Allaboutmike 10.00 3.6 7-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Talbeya 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Jo Marie 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Broadway Cat 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Julia’s Ready 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Comic Kitten 3.50 1.1 2-1
2 2 Mission From Elle 4.50 2 4-1
5 5 Delta’s Kingdom 4.50 2.5 5-1
10 10 Maid in the Mist 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Delcapem 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Dalika (GER) 6.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Gamblin Train 10.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Diva Day 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Tootsie 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Channel Princess 30.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 One for Richie 4.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Game Day Decision 4.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Super Terrific 12.00 2.2 4-1
10 10 Spirogyra 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Sea Shark 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Greeley Can Win 8.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 K C Against World 12.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Jacks Fire Balls 12.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Go Get That 15.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 Paddy O’Dini 15.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Frequent Traveler 20.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Weiland 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 J Boys Echo 3.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Bourbon Country 4.00 1.7 3-1
8 7 Jacktastic 4.00 2 4-1
3 3 Undercover Lover 6.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 You’re Killin Me 5.00 3.2 6-1
9 8 Long Blade 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Sambucca 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Tiz Trevor 20.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Louisville H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Soglio 2.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 Tiz a Slam 3.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Nessy 4.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Vettori Kin (BRZ) 3.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Shahroze (IRE) 3.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Strike the Flag 20.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Royal Artillery 20.00 3.8 7-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Iconic 3.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Local Hero 4.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Tactical Pursuit (IRE) 4.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Indigo Yankee 6.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Commandeering 5.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Dreamzapper 8.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Bemma’s Boy 15.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Moscow Minister 10.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Ghost Story 10.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Palace Princess 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Tizahra 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Actress On Board 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Uriah’s Legacy 20.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Sally’s Curlin 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Temperit 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Artistic 30.00 SCRATCH
8 6 Platinum Paynter 3.00 1.8 3-1
9 7 Bonnet 4.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Call to Victory 2.50 2.7 5-1
12 10 Trick of the Tail 6.00 3 6-1
10 8 Golden Loch 8.00 3.1 6-1
11 9 Tynagh Spirit 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Woodfin 20.00 3.4 7-1
6 5 Proudly Pacific 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Choate Bridge 4.00 3.5 7-1
4 3 Rodhwaan 15.00 4.7 9-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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