Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 18, 2019

May 18, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lady Warrior 2.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Miss Devine 1.80 1.3 2-1
4 4 Baylor 15.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 U Turn the Page 2.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Kingsbury Dream 12.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 R Four O One K 20.00 3 6-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Not Chopped Liver 2.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Santa Americana 8.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Little Ike 10.00 2 4-1
2 2 Carnoustie 4.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Hide the Evidence 2.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Landing Gear 15.00 2.9 5-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 New Rules 2.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Lool Beh 4.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Nurse Sadie 8.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Lillet 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Me too Mo 5.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Field Daisey 4.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Sister Ruler 10.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Hana Highway 10.00 3.8 7-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tapizart 15.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Light of the World 1.60 1 2-1
5 4 Bold Paynter 2.50 1.9 4-1
4 3 Ronamo 3.50 2.1 4-1
7 6 Majestic Day 15.00 2.5 5-1
3 2 Cornstarch 8.00 2.7 5-1
2 1 Eastside Boy 6.00 2.8 5-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Archiemyboy 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Farat 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Pont Du Gard 4.50 SCRATCH
4 2 Surf Shack 15.00 1.7 3-1
5 3 Burnside 2.50 1.9 3-1
9 6 Rio Seco 4.50 2.1 4-1
8 5 Sailing Solo 5.00 2.2 4-1
6 4 Campioni 20.00 2.2 4-1
3 1 American Heritage 5.00 2.8 5-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Gangsta Girl 2.50 SCRATCH
7 6 Kenai Cool 3.00 1.4 3-1
8 7 Amazing Annie 6.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Lookin At Vanessa 6.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Thirsty Cowgirl 8.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Night Flower 4.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Sharperthanme 12.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Dabinawa Dove 12.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Ghaaleb Royale 4.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Mora Valley 4.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Ronan 5.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Lizz a Bee 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Joyful Night 15.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Scarlet Position 4.50 2.9 6-1
4 4 Red Jersey 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Stopshoppingamy 20.00 3.8 7-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Run Wrightaway 3.50 1.1 2-1
1 1 War Beauty 5.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Shes Just Capital 3.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Twilight Warrior 12.00 3 6-1
5 5 Sharing a Laugh 10.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Victory Rose 4.50 3.4 6-1
8 8 Margarita Attack 6.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Dream of Hero 15.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Track Magic 20.00 4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Roar of the Lion 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Maligator 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Summer Castle 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Round Hill 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Maxus 30.00 SCRATCH
7 4 Orcus 3.50 1.6 3-1
3 1 Volgograd 15.00 1.8 3-1
9 5 Jimmy D 5.00 2.2 4-1
13 9 Tonbo 12.00 2.6 5-1
12 8 Speared 5.00 3.1 6-1
4 2 Sacred Legacy 20.00 3.4 6-1
6 3 Good Intent 20.00 3.6 7-1
10 6 Pamir 15.00 3.6 7-1
11 7 All Strikes 15.00 4.2 8-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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